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National Debt Research Paper

编辑: 毕业论文 Release time: 2016-08-18 Editor: Graduation thesis

From 1998 to 2001, China issued a total of 510 billion yuan of long-term national debt and arranged 8,600 national debt projects with a total investment of 2.4 trillion yuan. By the end of 2000, 1.5 trillion yuan of investment had been completed, accounting for 63% of the total project investment. It is estimated that more than 90% of the total investment can be completed by the end of 2002. Regarding large-scale government debt investment, the theoretical community has launched active research, and now summarizes some views as follows:

I. Evaluation of China's National Debt Scale.

1. The first view is that there are five main indicators for judging the appropriateness of national debt: (1) the national debt dependency; (2) the national debt burden rate; (3) the national debt repayment rate; (4) the fiscal allocation rate; ( 5) National debt ratio. According to international standards, the warning lines of the first four indicators are 20%, 15%, 6%, and 3%, respectively. The actual situation in China is that the national debt dependency ratio reached 26% in 1996, exceeding the international substitute line; the national debt burden ratio reached 5.2% in 1995; the national debt repayment ratio was 13.48% in 1995; the fiscal distribution ratio exceeded the replacement ratio in 1991. The warning line was 3.3%, which reached 3.8% in 1995; the national debt ratio was only 5.1% in 1995, but the amount of national debt per capita accounted for a higher proportion of annual income per capita. It can be seen that the magnitude of the impact on the scale of national debt is the government debt repayment rate, the national debt ratio, the national debt dependency ratio, and the national debt burden ratio. Three of these indicators exceed the standard, indicating that we can no longer be too optimistic about the continued expansion of the national debt scale.

2. The second point of view is that expanding the scale of national debt is a good thing. (1) It is direct financing, which is naturally lower in cost than indirect financing, and is used centrally by the central government, and the macroeconomic benefits are much better; (2) When the national debt is of a considerable scale, the central bank must conduct money supply through open market operations Fine-tuning and eventually implementing monetary policy. If the amount of government bonds is not large enough, open market operations will not be able to control the money supply or even operate; (3) In order to ensure economic reform and social development, the role of the central government should be further strengthened. We need to increase financial resources as the material basis. Without changing the basic pattern of national income distribution, national debt can become a heavy channel for central government financing. Especially in recent years, increasing the issuance of national debt has played an important role in expanding domestic demand. But after all, national debt is a form of paid fiscal revenue. Its issuance not only can lead to additional social demand, change the structure of social consumption and investment, but also be restricted by various objective economic factors. Only with a moderate scale of government bonds can it play its positive role in promoting economic development and adjusting economic operations.

3. The third point of view is that:

(1) From the perspective of debt burden ratio, the long-term growth of national debt still has certain potential.

Before 1998, China's debt burden rate was only about 5%. In 1998, the debt burden ratio was close to 10% (if we consider the 270 billion yuan of special government bonds to supplement the capital of commercial banks, the debt burden ratio has reached 13%), which is a long way from the 20% ceiling. According to a forecast report of the Economic Research Institute of the State Development Planning Commission, if the deficit rate is set at 3% during the "Tenth Five-Year Plan" period, China's annual debt scale can grow annually at an average annual rate of 13.4%, and by 2005 The amount of issuance will reach 598.4 billion yuan; and if the deficit rate is limited to 2%, China's annual debt scale can grow year by year at an average annual rate of 11.7%. By 2005, the amount of debt issuance will reach 493.2 billion yuan. From 2000 to 20005, the average annual growth rate of China's debt will increase in the range of 11% to 13%.

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